The Fed held steady — but the signal ran deeper.

At its May meeting, central bank officials kept the upper bound of the fed funds rate at 4.5%.
Headline message: stability.
Underlying reality: a policy team navigating tradeoffs in real time.

Two forces stood out:
— Tariffs pushing prices higher across sectors
— Shifting momentum in key labor data

Inflation pressure persists — and policy continues to adapt in real time.

What mattered beneath the surface? Tone.

The minutes revealed caution paired with readiness — signs of leadership managing uncertainty, protecting credibility, and weighing consequences in a high-stakes environment.

Markets read the hold as reassurance.
We read the minutes as something more: decision-making shaped by risk, and the need to preserve optionality.

At Eagle Talon, this is what we study.
Markets offer signals.
Leadership behavior reveals intent — and judgment.

Federal Reserve Staff See Increased Recession Risk in Wake of Tariffs, Minutes Show