The numbers a company produces are downstream of the decisions its leader makes. And the decisions a leader makes are downstream of who they are before the pressure arrives.

The question I ask in every diligence meeting isn't 'is this a good business?' It's 'is this the right person, in the right seat, at the right moment?'

Those are not the same question. And the gap between them is where most of the risk lives.

Private credit has grown from roughly $500 billion to over $3.5 trillion in global assets under management in approximately a decade, according to AIMA's Financing the Economy 2025 report. Capital has flowed in because the pitch is compelling: consistent income, reported low volatility, and insulation from public market swings.

Most investors default to cash when uncertainty rises. Reducing exposure and holding liquidity feels like the disciplined choice. Sometimes it is. But it is rarely the best way to protect capital over a full market cycle.

The ten largest companies in the S&P 500 now represent over 40% of the index. Nearly double their weight a decade ago.

A portfolio that holds a broad index fund and calls itself diversified may be placing an outsized bet on the capital allocation decisions of fewer than a dozen CEOs.

Emerging manager hedge funds outperform established managers across most sub-strategies. A recent study by Preqin/50 South Capital pegs the spread at almost 4% per annum while enduring only modestly higher risk as measured by volatility. Total cumulative outperformance was 22% over five years and almost 36% over the study’s 7.5 year period.