Deal activity is back. The boards driving it aren't more confident than they were six months ago
Deal activity is back. The boards driving it aren't more confident than they were six months ago. They're more afraid of standing still.
That's a different signal than the last cycle. It produces different outcomes.
Three forces are converging:
1. Capital markets confirm the pickup. Goldman Sachs’ M&A advisory fees were up 89% year-over-year in Q1. David Solomon's shareholder letter explained why: boards now feel a greater likelihood of executing strategic transactions and are taking a more front-footed approach.
2. The regulatory environment has loosened materially. Transactions that would have drawn serious antitrust resistance 18 months ago are clearing with fewer conditions.
3. Activists are pushing companies into sale processes rather than operating turnarounds.
During the prior cycle, boards transacted from conviction. The strategic rationale was internalized. The combined leadership team had been mapped before the press release.
When boards act from a place of competitive anxiety, cracks typically appear in the first 12 months. Because internal alignment was never fully built. Synergy targets get revised more than once. Senior leadership from the acquired company stays through their contractual retention period, then leaves once the payment clears.
That distinction almost never shows up in the announcement.
What I'd watch: whether companies launching strategic reviews in the next two quarters reference a defined operating thesis, or generic phrases about exploring options. Specificity signals a board that has done the internal work. Generality usually means the board hasn't reached alignment yet — and is moving because they fear being left without a deal when the window closes, not because the logic is clear.
Which sector do you think is most at risk of announcing deals driven by competitive anxiety rather than genuine strategic conviction?
🔗 Source: Dealmaking to Pick Up This Year Despite Iran War Risks, Goldman CEO Says
